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Starts at a successful, but not full-capacity, production ramp. Every assumption is adjustable.
Engines sold annually
Why it matters: Shipment volume is the biggest driver of potential revenue. POET's announced goal is capacity to meet demand for up to 1M units/month by end-2027 (12M annualized), but that is capacity, not confirmed sales. The slider extends beyond that target to explore later expansion.
Source: POET AGM update, June 2026 ↗Average selling price per OE
Why it matters: Revenue is units sold × the price POET actually receives per engine. A third-party 1.6T optical-engine market study estimates approximately $350/unit for 2025, suggesting $100 is a conservative scenario relative to that category. However, this is not a POET quote, does not establish its product mix, and may not apply to high-volume 2028 sales. POET has not disclosed a verified blended ASP.
Source: 1.6T optical-engine market study ↗Price-to-sales multiple
Why it matters: This is how much market capitalization investors assign to each $1 of annual revenue. Higher expected growth, margins and defensibility can support higher multiples; competition and execution risk can lower them. The 8× default is illustrative, not an established optical-industry average. This model uses equity P/S, not EV/Sales.
For example, $500M revenue × 8 = $4B implied market cap. Changing this assumption changes the stock-price result even when sales stay the same.
Projected shares outstanding
Why it matters: The same market capitalization divided by more shares means a lower price per share. The 200M default is a hypothetical future count above the current issued shares, but well below the gross fully diluted total.
August 13, 2026 filed breakdown: 173.058M common shares + 78.735M outstanding warrants (including Lumilens and MMCAP) + 5.369M options + 4.253M RSUs = 261.415M gross as-if-exercised shares. This is not an accounting diluted EPS share count. Many warrants are conditional or out of the money; exercise proceeds and possible convertible debt shares are not modeled. More dilution is possible.
Source: POET August 2026 MD&A, outstanding share data ↗2028 revenue-based valuation scenario
The market could anticipate future sales earlier. This is a hypothetical valuation, not a prediction of when the stock will reach it.
Enter a valid share count of zero or more.
The price-to-sales multiple includes investors' expectations for growth beyond 2028. Cash, debt, other business lines, and future dilution beyond your selected share count are not separately valued.
Why model 2028?
POET has said it aims to expand manufacturing capacity to meet demand of up to 1 million units a month by the end of 2027. That makes 2028 the first potential full calendar year at that capacity. But capacity is not orders, shipments, or recognized revenue.
The default 5M engines represents about 42% of the theoretical 12M annual capacity. Scenarios above 12M would require further capacity expansion, outsourcing, a different product/unit mix, or another route beyond that announced target. They are not covered by the current capacity guidance.
Source: POET 2026 AGM update (SEC filing).
Scope & assumptions
- $100/OE as a default is a conservative scenario relative to a third-party ~$350 estimate for 1.6T optical engines in 2025—not verified POET pricing or a guaranteed floor. Different engine generations and configurations may command very different prices. Market study ↗
- 8× sales as a default is an illustrative premium-growth P/S multiple, not a confirmed industry average. It applies to estimated equity market value, not enterprise value.
- 200M default shares assumes some dilution beyond ~173.1M common shares. A gross as-if-exercised count including reported warrants, options, and RSUs is ~261.4M; more dilution is possible. SEC filing ↗
- Included: the assumed sale of optical engines, potentially across Infinity, TeraLight and comparable OE products, if the selected blended ASP and shipment volume reflect them.
- Excluded: standalone Blazar hybrid-laser/external light source products, other external light sources and light-source modules, POET-branded finished transceiver modules, NRE/design fees, licensing, and any other revenue not represented by the selected OE units. The Optical Interposer is a technology platform, not a separate revenue line automatically added here. POET product disclosure ↗
This calculator is independent, educational, and not affiliated with POET Technologies. It is not investment advice.
Could a revaluation happen before the revenue arrives?
Yes, potentially. Stock prices reflect expectations about future business, not just the latest financial report. A credible large advance purchase order, completed customer qualification, or a firm multiyear supply commitment could prompt investors to reassess POET before substantial shipments, quarterly revenue, or full-year 2028 financial statements appear.
However, a purchase order is not automatically recognized revenue, and its significance depends on whether it is binding, contingent on qualification, cancellable, funded, and realistically deliverable. The market can react positively, negatively, or not at all. These sliders illustrate an annual revenue and valuation scenario—they do not imply that investors must wait until 2029 or that an earlier stock-price increase is assured.
What could go wrong?
Qualification and customer orders. Evaluations may not turn into repeat orders. Even announced orders may depend on technical milestones, financing or customer deployments, and some may be canceled.
Scaling manufacturing. A capacity target does not guarantee saleable output. Yields, component supplies, testing, quality and delivery timelines can constrain shipments.
Pricing and margins. Competitive pressure, product mix, discounts and generational price erosion may reduce realized ASPs. Revenue alone does not determine profits or cash flow.
Valuation and dilution. A high P/S multiple may contract even if revenue grows. Warrants, RSUs, options, convertible instruments and future financings can change the shares and cash behind each share.
Competition and technology shifts. Other photonics architectures or suppliers may win designs. The 800G/1.6T market and later generations could evolve differently from today's expectations.
Concentration and timing. Large customers, partners or AI spending cycles may influence orders. The stock may be volatile, and commercial success does not guarantee a particular price by any date.
Risks summarized from POET's August 2026 management discussion and risk disclosures ↗.